How do we know what's going on in China today?
In a bit of Election 2024 counterprogramming, I have a short essay in Foreign Policy arguing that while it's not the same as it ever was, there's a lot of data available to interpret.
I think it is basically taken for granted that understanding China today is not as easy as it was two decades ago. China was opening up and fortunes were being made. And there are certainly ways in which China today is closed off, especially to foreign observers, that are different than back then. Yet China even under Xi Jinping is far from some inscrutable Orient or dark Mordor.
I wrote about how we can understand China today for Foreign Policy.
Here are a couple of excerpts:
But since 2013, when President Xi Jinping took control, that opening has gone into reverse—a process accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, while observing China has become increasingly difficult, information and resources are out there to use to do good, careful work and analysis—if you know where to look.
Eh, why does it matter?
Rising geopolitical tensions heighten the stakes of misunderstanding China and the rewards for those willing to profess certainties about its circumstances and their implications. Today, a murkily defined China makes for a convenient bogeyman, a justification for protectionist policies and military buildups.
But isn’t it just Xi Jinping?
I suppose that some may find these kinds of analyses frustrating. If one views Chinese politics solely as the wants and desires of one man, then what benefit can come from finding out what average Chinese citizens in Zouping or Ordos or Shenzhen are complaining about online? Clearly, Xi’s preferences matter deeply for the trajectory of Chinese politics on a host of dimensions, but one man does not govern China. Xi cannot stop scammers from ripping off the elderly in Shanghai, keep delivery companies from underpaying their drivers in Chongqing, or even make sure that military recruits hit their targets in practice during basic training.
Read the rest and share with your friends who definitely would like something else to think about today.