China’s doom is everywhere, inspiring yet another dragon-themed cover of The Economist.
Last Friday, I went for it:
Since it’s Friday, I’m gonna go full lukewarm: China will muddle through this economic moment. Central govt balance sheet will absorb some bad debt, new acronyms will appear, people will still eat baozi, complain about neighbors, and pray for high test scores.
Put me in the tepid take hall of fame.
Well, less than a week later, look what happened. It grew up, and it grew green.
China's old economic model is breaking. Its Replacement Might Be Green.
Let me know what you think. EVs and solar might never add up to the full share of GDP that real estate garnered at its peak, but they don’t seem like terrible pillars on which to build a new growth model.